Wall Street Collapse
Washington, DC, Jan 6th, 2008 -- The intelligence simulations fro the financial services industry look worse every time they are run. My predictions that there will be 150,000 layoffs in this sector causes many executives to firmly believe I have lost it. They point to the continuing growth of the Dow Jones, and the huge bonuses they all receive for robbing little old ladies of their life savings.
Recently in a group discussion with Wealth Managers they tried to convince me to stop believing in doom and gloom and instead be optimistic like them.
The idea that President Bush has been running the War in Iraq on credit is also met with scorn. How can you believe that the world's only superpower hasn't the resources to fight these two wars, and another two if it so desired. The economy is booming I am often told, and the Dow will crash through 15,000, 16,000 and even 20,000 by 2009.
I sit alone, looking at the simulations, and wondering how the picture is so different from my financial friends in Philadelphia, and New York. How we can input the same data, and come out with such different conclusions.
Then I speak with the contacts from The World Bank, and my trusted financial expert. There they tell me the US is in deep doo-dah and heading for a financial meltdown, even a Wall Street Collapse. They too see my looming disaster scenario. Why is it that those who are driving this financial train can't see themselves in a train wreck? Could it be the huge bonuses, and sky high salaries?
If I was being handed a million dollar bonus for an average day's work at the Golf course, Union League Club and touring the finest restaurants with clients, and an unlimited expense account I too would want to believe the financial gravy train would run forever, and never run out of steam.
These financial companies employ competitive intelligence, and market intelligence teams so they should be aware of the forces that are at play on their industries and companies. The same with the Pharmaceutical and Automobile industries, they employ more intelligence managers and analysts than anyone else. Could it be that they have inside information on the future that I have missed? That would alter the pessimistic outcome of the simulation, and maybe even give them the optimism I do not have.
My gut feeling is that they are smoking dope, or sniffing coke and don't want to deal with reality. Could we see a Wall Street Meltdown in 2008. The intelligence scenarios seem to think this is possible, even probable.
Take two Asprins and call me back in 2009.
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