Oil at $100 a Barrel
Washington, DC Nov. 5th, 2007 ---- In 2003 I predicted that Oil would head towards $100 a barrel if Bush was re-elected, a huge windfall to his supporters and a direct result of his misguided delusionary policies in the Middle East. The audience thought this was a far fetched conspiracy theory and that in their minds the Saudi's would support Bandar Bush and help out the USA to get prices to their traditional low level. The Republicans were especially adamant that our friends in Saudi Arabia would look after our interests.
In those days China was seen as a backward base for cheap production, and few knew, or acknowledged the influence that President Clinton had on China, especially concerning it's interest in providing nuclear technology to Iran. Had Bush spent less time shouting "9/11" and more time looking around the world and listening to Geopolitical experts then he would have seen the storm clouds forming.
Every evening I get a global compilation of the price of Oil around the world, and even I could see the trend, without a $60,000,000,000 intelligence gathering machine at my disposal. But consider the secret meetings that Cheney had with the Energy companies, and the still secret energy advisory boards. One could be led to believe that the huge price of oil is manufactured, and those benefiting include those making government policy.
The most irritating aspect of this spiraling price of oil is that few corporate intelligence departments are tracking the effects of geopolitical and energy intelligence on their manufacturing, marketing and sales forecasts. Many believe that a Democratic President in 2008 will bring stability to Oil prices. Wrong!! If Bush attacks Iran then watch the price of oil skyrocket.
Iraq under Saddam was an irritation to Israel and the Bush family, but in reality was somewhat a stabilizing force in the balance of Sunni/Shia/Kurds in the region. Had the US not been so Pig Headed with the economic blockade then Saddam would have moderated sooner or later, as did Gaddafi in Libya. But the opportunity to create the biggest Military-Industrial Complex the world has ever known was too good an opportunity to miss. Big Oil loved the idea for invading armies need a lot of oil!
The voters, led more by fake TV ads about John Kerry and Swift Boats, duly went along with the charade and the rest is history.
But those same voters forget, or never bothered to take notice, that the upper price of gasoline is estimated as around $4 a gallon before the masses get irritated and demand action. That price will be seen some time in early 2008, the blame being placed on Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela. Again the gullible public will swallow the propaganda, and put more debt on credit cards.
Unfortunately the Democratic President will have to develop a promised plan for some flavor of Universal Healthcare, and the military will have earmarked that money for military excursions, and replacement of worn out equipment, wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan. If in the worst case scenario that becomes "Abandoned in Iraq and Afghanistan" then we have a whole bigger problem to face.
As most of the fuel used is by the military then increased activity, such as an attack on Iran, or an expensive airlift out of Afghanistan will suck up vast quantities of the shrinking global oil supply. That will send up the price of gasoline at the pumps.
If Iran is attacked, either by the US or Israel, then we could see retaliation against refineries, supply routes and storage facilities in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. All easily within the reach of even a depleted Iranian military, or Hezbollah saboteurs already in position. Consider that US refining and storage facilities too will be on their lists of targets.
Then wave bye bye to cheap gasoline and consider $10 a gallon not outside the realms of possibility. Hey in 2003 I didn't think Kerry was a spectacular candidate, but I did warn of the consequences of returning Cheney/Bush to the White House. Being correct doesn't get you any prize!