Energy Intelligence Advisors
Washington, DC May 11th, 2007 --- Geopolitics and Energy, are now our primary focus as the world hurtles towards a water and energy trainwreck. Every day I receive several hundred briefings, position papers, white papers, maps, charts and news releases from around the world on energy and water, most with conclusions that just don't add up. It is essential to know who wrote them, and why they were produced.
The intrigue in the Global Energy business makes James Bond look like a Boy Scout attending Sunday School. The lies, fraud, misinformation and huge profits both blow the mind and make my task of seeking the truth very interesting to say the least. In years to come the blatant corruption of the Bush/Cheney years will begin to be known, especially by the 29% who believe they are still doing a good job.
But the fact is that American people have chosen a route of adventurism and denial over their energy supplies, and the results will be disastrous for future generations. Just as Winston Churchill saw the error in the ways of the corrupt British and French governments, and foresaw the looming crisis, then trusted Energy Intelligence Advisors have to develop scenarios that tries to protect America for when the crunch comes, in the not too distant future.
The pill is a difficult one to swallow for it means many aspects of life have to change. There is an immediate economical benefit, but compared to the lifestyle of unfettered consumption it is a change of lifestyle that many will refuse to embrace. In 2007 it doesn't make a huge difference if millions of Americans ride their gas-guzzling Detroit Battle Wagons, run their heating and air conditioning on max, and ride their polluting lawn mower, around the entire State. All it will do is make the future scenario more violent, more painful and with more deaths as the US fights for energy supplies, water and to feed and house the millions of immigrants flooding from a parched Mexico.
The global population is exploding, yet the supplies of fossil energy are still finite, and the supplies of drinking water are disappearing as the temperature rises, more mouths drink the water, and more sewerage pollutes the water supply.
You can ignore these facts, and it really doesn't matter a whole hill of beans if you do. You can tell everyone the Al Gore is a stupid tree hugging liberal talking about Global Warming. It doesn't really matter for the rest of the world is taking measures to benefit from changing their ways. It doesn't really matter what you think if you fill your Ford Explorer, top off the tank, and drive to every Soccer Game to impress the neighbors. It doesn't matter today if you fire up the BBQ and open all the doors and windows with the air conditioner running. Bush will just borrow more money from China to cover your excesses. Your kids will pay, many with their life, but that's not your concern.
Corporations can ignore the looming energy crisis, they can ignore the implications to their global supply chain. Then one day they will find that their energy bill has gone through the roof, they can't get supplies of oil and gas, that their goods are stuck and can't be brought to market for the third world country that now houses their total production capacity hasn't any fuel, and their electricity grid is down. To add to those worries their population is rioting and have just burned down the warehouse because it had the Stars and Stripes on the flagpole. Think about the possible scenarios and you will be horrified how close we are to the failure of most major corporations, with stretched and vulnerable supply chains.
What then is a Energy Intelligence Advisor and why has it suddenly become so important to choose the right one.
Well the amount of " fertilizer" in the media is just amazing. Every lobby group is pitching their case, and the vast majority of them are simply not true. Well not completely true for whilst they have an end product, the process creates a worse scenario than existed in the first place. Take the love of Ethanol from Corn, the darling of US farming conglomerates, the Bushies and the Big Business interests. The growing of Corn to make Ethanol is unbelievably stupid and immoral. Using the stalks and leaves is a different matter, but hijacking a large portion of the food supply to satisfy the excesses of American SUV's is asking for a major disaster. The first signs are already appearing as corn is diverted from the poorer regions of the world, to make the rich man's Ethanol. The result is the price of human food, and animal feeds are skyrocketing. The answer for Mexicans is to pack up their belongings and move to the United States to earn more money, to be able to afford the corn.
Yet Hedge Funds, Banks, States, Cities and Development Funds are pumping billions of dollars into projects that are doomed from the start.
Same with Coal. The pitch I was given recently involved dumping the CO2 from burning Coal into abandoned mine shafts, oil wells, even salt mines. What happens when the mine is full and CO2 is venting into cellars, train tunnels and killing people. Oops I am now a "Chicken Little" and don't understand making a quick buck from investors. Yet Coal together with Nuclear may be the only way forward in about 25 years time.
Today companies need to overhaul their entire operation, and look for energy saving procedures, and potential failure points for external forces. That extends way back along the supply chain, for the local UPS truck may have lot's of fuel, but the truck with the essential parts may be stuck waiting in line half way around the world.
States, Counties and Cities have even more critical issues, and you have to include water as part of the equation. Also population growth may result in an earlier catastrophic failure than simple calculations show. Take Florida as a case study for those needing further proof. If fuel costs double, even treble over the next five years how will that affect services. If the taxpayers are on the point of defaulting through being overextended through living beyond their means and relying on credit, how will that factor into the scenario.
Energy Advisors need to develop more contingency plans for States and Cities than changing light bulbs and keeping windows closed. They need to be looking closely at the grids, water supplies, transit systems and the corporate base to ensure continuity of businesses, especially manufacturing and distribution.
Fortunately many of us went through these exercises during the real years of Y2K, before the Rabid Religious Right started throwing in Embedded Chips, Armageddon and predicting the end of civilization. Those exercises showed us how vulnerable the United States was if a number of events occurred at the same time.
Of course you could hire a young kid straight out of college who has never seen fuel shortages, global disruption or failure of the global supply chain. You could wait until your competitors get the upper hand, and the situation in China reaches a point where there isn't a plan "B".
Just remember there is a world shortage of Solar Panels and equipment components for many other fuel alternatives, the wind doesn't always blow, and windmills create havoc in many previously unforeseen ways. Biofuel often costs more to produce than it's marketplace price, that subsidies are keeping the BioFuel industry afloat and must end sometime. Your corporate, State or City energy plan may just be a load of hot air. Sounds good, like the goals of many politicians, but totally figments of their imagination, for they didn't factor in the conflicting forces that may derail the entire project. That's why you need to choose a good Energy Intelligence Advisor!