The Sky Isn't Falling
Washington, DC May 10th, 2007 --- To those who believe that the Sky is Falling, it isn't. The Sky is feeling a little stressed and will still be there in a billion years. Mankind may not be there in a hundred years, even fifty years, and it won't be a glorious Second Coming of Christ where the followers of Evangelical Preachers will be given a life of perpetual enlightenment. It will be a global conflict between nuclear armed nations seeking to feed their people and grab as much energy and water as they can, with military force. It doesn't take a genius to see a looming conflict between China, India, Israel, the United States and many other countries over resources. Many scenarios seem to point to an all out war around 2030, or earlier. That is of course if there are no natural, or man made disasters that precipitate an earlier confrontation. The sky will still be up there, and the Sun will still be warming the charred remains of the human race.
The mainstream media, politicians and lobbyists are very good at focusing on selected data figures, and ignoring and suppressing others. It's called Cherry Picking.
But we are not playing in an isolated game where we control the rules, the outcome and the scenarios. That's a luxury reserved for the Pentagon and the Bush Administration for fooling the voters. We do not control either the outcome or the factors that influence the Global Scenario.
The issue of Peak Oil, Peak Gas and Peak Coal can be argued one way or the other. The reserves are unknown, and both governments and Oil companies lie. The issue of declining supplies of Drinking Water cannot be argued, even in Florida and the West Coast of the USA. The sky is still providing rain, but not enough to supply the extravagant needs of a growing population, bloated by uncounted illegal immigrants. Sorry folks but as the arid lands of Mexico become more arid, and Corn becomes more scarce thanks to the misguided BioFuel industry the population will head North to survive.
And the global population question is a religious Hot Potato. We will have around 6,000,000,000 too many people on the planet when the Oil, Gas, and Coal begins to run out, and the water isn't there.
There is a mistaken belief that the glorious period of peace and American Consumption that has reigned supreme for over half a Century will go on for ever. It will not. The last fifty years have been a period of global stability like never before. The two Superpowers created stability because both had enough room, resources and food to satisfy their populations, with enough surplus to feed others in return for their support.
Within the next twenty years the population growth in China, India and many other countries will create a scenario never before seen on the planet. At worst it will result in global war and hundreds of millions killed. Remember that the next war if it involves China will be Asymmetric, and not based on traditional military rules. It may be fought by global pandemics, with one side or the other having the antidote, or medicine and the other not. 300,000,000 dead in the United States and it's depopulation with zero survivors, 300,000,000 dead in China and it's just Birth Control!
The situation can be avoided, but either way the sacrifices and changes of lifestyle will be unpalatable to millions of currently affluent Americans, especially those who do not believe the Status-Quo can or will change. But there is another factor to be included in the scenario, many Americans are already at their financial limits, and although Wall Street speculators get phenomenal bonuses the vast majority are one paycheck away from poverty. The USA has far too much wealth concentrated in far too few hands, those with holiday homes in countries that can shelter them, with offshore bank accounts already in place. Consider another millions of starving refugees flooding into the USA, and the people with the money fleeing. The Sky still won't fall, but the rioting will blot out the Sun as homes, cars and businesses burn. It's a worst case scenario, but very possible.
I must admit the confidential figures for Energy made me a little smug for the future, until I started factoring in Water and the global Population Explosion. Now if you accelerate the melting of the Polar Icecaps, add a couple of devastating Hurricane seasons, flooding in the MidWest and a rising water level that drowns Miami and most of the coastal areas, then it becomes positively gloomy. But to really depress everyone factor in the collapse of the Atlantic Conveyer and consider what the unfettered release of Carbon Dioxide can and will eventually cause.
Tomorrow find a young child, even a teenager and tell them that you are going to murder them in 30 years time, for their parents are afraid of being called "Chicken Little" and having lobbyists accuse them of thinking that "The Sky is Falling!" It isn't falling it will be there in a million years, just as the small reptiles emerge out of the slime and begin exploring the land that we once knew as the United States.
Go on, tell that young kid that you don't give a damn if they die in 30 years time, for you really do need a riding lawn mower, a Ford Explorer and tomatoes and lettuce in the Supermarket all year round. For we all know a daily helping of salad, brought from thousands of miles away is good for your diet. But enough Chicken Little it's time to watch brave young volunteers being blown to pieces in Iraq and listen to our Commander in Chief tell us everything is just fine! Talking about reality and the serious geopolitical threats give comfort to our enemies.
Just tell the young kid "Mission Accomplished" and everything will be just fine, just trust the Oil Industry, Dick Cheney and don't believe these Chicken Little's who warn of a looming energy and water crisis. The Sky is NOT falling. Just millions of these young kids will face an agonizing death unless we take control of our energy and water future.