October Surprise - Invading Iran?
Washington, DC Sep. 20th, 2006 ---- The fanatical evangelical advisers of President Bush are demanding an attack on Iran as the October Surprise to swing the November elections. They see the rage created by media attacks on him by President Chavez and President Ahmadinejad the perfect opportunity to convinced Bush to go and attack Iran before the November elections give control over Congress to the Democrats, and put an end to his free reign of global military excursions.
Every time Bush has talked tough this month his popularity poll has jumped, and the Neo-Cons believe they can convince him that a Crusade will send his popularity into the Stratosphere. The threats against the Pope being proof of the need to strike before the Communists take over the Hill and try and bring down his ambitions to be a great military leader. History repeats itself, as we watch the American Empire implode, as has the British Empire, French, Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese, Roman and Greek before it. Just the scenario Dr. Evil Cheney and Dr. Death Rumsfeld want to lead in their declining old age, millions being slaughtered in a Holy Crusade. Ah, Smell the Napalm in the morning.
There are two scenarios that come to mind if the October Surprise is an all out military action against Iran. Firstly the devastation will be so severe that it will be years before Iran becomes a threat to anyone in the Middle East. This is old man Rumsfeld's Shock and Awe philosophy. This worked great in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in Vietnam years earlier. (sarcasm) But Rummy fondly remembers the success of the Tokyo raids, and the bombing of Berlin. The dwindling pro-American youth will rise up and a moderate secular government will replace the theocracy now in power. This comes from the same think tank that predicted the Iraqi population would greet US troops as liberators.
The second scenario is that the Iranians will be ready and like the Israeli/US defeat by Hezbollah will result in a humiliating withdrawal, but result in inflicting unjustified and unwarranted damage to the civilian infrastructure. The Iranians will retaliate with a global campaign of terror unlike anything we have ever seen, or envisaged. Using Cuba and Venezuela as bases they will project their terror campaign into the soft underbelly of the United States, including the offshore oil and gas infrastructure. The million or so furious young Iranians will flood across the border with Iraq, join with their Shia brothers and sweep through the region towards Israel. In the meantime they will cripple Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Gulf States Oil facilities. China will grab Venezuelan oil to prevent civil unrest in China, and the US and China will be in direct confrontation.
Now from a long term global strategy it would make sense to beat the crap out of Iran, but only if the military were in full wartime strength, with the very best modern equipment serviced and ready for war. If legions of trained reserves were coiled like a spring ready to leap onto the battle field, wave after wave then yes, let's hit Iran before it becomes too powerful. Unfortunately thanks to gross mismanagement of Iraq and Afghanistan we have a badly depleted, near breaking point, and exhausted Army. They will go and fight, and fight bravely, but against the Iranian "Human Waves" we saw unleashed against Iraq they will be quickly overrun. Satellite guided super smart missiles are little use against a foe straight out of the Zulu wars, or using warfare familiar to Gunga Din.
Come November the opportunity to rely on a useless Rubber Stamp Congress may have ended and the potential of a Democratic Congress clipping the wings of the Commander in Chief is very real.
The fanatics see only one opportunity to strike, and that is October.
The scenarios point to a bloody battle, especially if you believe Iraq was a trap, and the US, and Britain are snared exactly where they can be hit hard. The more I look at our maps of the region, and the scenarios the more I wonder which country is behind the Iranians. This is not the planning of Iran, or Syria. The monitoring of Israeli frequency agile communications, and breaking of their codes and computer ciphers by Hezbollah was missed by the useless American mainstream media, too busy with Monday Night Football and Britney Spears to see the significance of that statement, substantiated by the Israelis. The same crowd of irregular trouble makers that had tens of thousands of rockets, and mobile rocket launchers to fire against Israel, and had RPG rounds capable of penetrating depleted Uranium armor. You can't get that capability from Syria, and the crypto cracking is beyond both Syria and Iran. Israeli armor and crypto are some of the most advanced in the world!
If I am correct this is a far bigger, and better organized campaign against the USA than the idiots advising Boy Blunder believe. If so the US needs to step back, make REAL war plans, and mobilize to ensure winning the war. There are only so many Intelligence Failures before even a global superpower becomes a penniless shadow of it's former glory. Look at history for case studies.
Reintroducing the draft, and banning the very rich moving money offshore would be a good first step. Then seize all essential companies in defense, telecommunications and logistics whose headquarters are offshore. Sorry Intelsat you better move back from the shelter of Bermuda to where you can be controlled and regulated.
We have a fake political "War on Terror" designed to create a Thousand Year Republican Reich. If we are serious then kick the whole country onto a real war footing and finish the job once and for all. A couple of hundred thousand, maybe a million killed would halt illegal immigration and everyone would be employed in the overall war effort. Street crime would end if young thugs were immediately shipped to the battlefield. They would be very careful about even admitting to knowing how to fire a gun, or use a knife, much less using one.
The American public need to listen, think and voice their support, or rejection. Although I believe an Attack on Iran would be absolutely foolhardy, it would bring the country to it's senses, and make the electorate wake up and see the world real time. Only time will tell!