Political Intelligence

Contact Us



Countdown to War

Washington, DC. Jan 16th, 2006 --- The Cheney/Rumsfeld plans for the Middle East have not turned out anything like the "Cakewalk" promised to the US Electorate, and swallowed by millions of voters. Today we begin counting down to the confrontation, and eventual war between Iran and Israel, with thousands of American lives lost in the middle.

The problem is that no amount of negotiation will halt the inevitable, maybe delay it for months, even years, but eventually there will be the Mother of all Wars that will plunge the United States back into the Great Depression, together with the rest of the world.

Israel will not back down in their intent to strike at the Iranian Nuclear facilities, and you can understand why this time around. The outspoken, even reckless President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, publicly demands the extinction of Israel."There is no doubt that the new wave in Palestine will soon wipe off this disgraceful blot from the face of the Islamic world. As the Imam [Khomeini] said, Israel must be wiped off the map."

The rhetoric is flying fast and furious as Iran and Israel square off in the war of words. The Iranians despise the dual standards of the US providing Israel with multiple nuclear weapons, refusing to criticize Israel for not allowing access by UN nuclear inspectors and ensuring Israel has the military capacity far beyond it's defensive needs to threaten the entire region. Whilst this is true Iran should bring these matters to the UN, not decide unilaterally to go head to head in a nuclear confrontation.

There is valid argument that there should be no nuclear weapons in the Middle East, Israel or Iran. But devoid of any global leadership for peaceful coexistence the whole cauldron is beginning to boil over. The Bush Administration has achieved a total abysmal track record in the region, with one failure after another. If it was not for their manipulation of the US media the American public would understand the depth of the problem.

What effect will it have on the world. We can run many global scenarios, but one thing is certain the Oil supplies of the world are at a huge risk.

If Russia and China can be bought off by the USA, then there is hope in the short term. And Bush has shown again and again the lengths he will go to to put the children and grandchildren of voters into debt to cover up his mistakes. But there still will be retaliation by Iran if Israel attacks.

Israel may sit back and wait. But then in one day as prescribed by the Ayatollahs the end of the world will occur for millions of Israelis. There will be no declaration of war, just a decision from reading the Chicken Bones, Scriptures, or Tea Leaves, whatever the Ayatollahs do to get their messages from the Almighty. It certainly will not be from any democratic source.

Should they attack in March, as everyone seems to believe, then we must consider the retaliation of Iran. They have Sunburn Missiles and are reported to have Shkval Torpedoes. That means shipping, especially in the Straits of Hormuz is in real danger. The mighty US Carrier Battle Groups will have to be kept hundreds of miles away, to protect them from these superior Soviet weapons designed to blow them out of the water. Every ship within a hundred miles of the Carrier Group could be a threat, and the US will become very unpopular as the Navy gets trigger happy.

Iran has millions of young men, and women who only know hating America. They have the support of millions of like minded young men in Iraq, totally disillusioned with the American Occupation. In other words a huge army surrounding the 130,000 US troops on all sides. Add to that the majority of the population of Pakistan, a failing Pakistani government, and the Pakistani store of Nuclear Weapons. The US Command and Control facilities, together with the Saudi Arabian Oilfields are in easy striking distance of Iran, with no natural defenses to protect them from a determined adversary.

But Iran may decide not to attack the military, just to starve the world of Oil and watch it destroy itself. Iran may begin sinking tankers from Kuwait, and the Gulf States, close the Straits of Hormuz and destroy as many pipelines as it can, as quickly as it can. Then the US and Israel are up against China, India, Japan and the rest of the world. The only hope for Bush is to attack his vocal enemy Hugo Chavez and grab the Venezuelan Oil. Problem is the Chinese will get mighty annoyed at being starved of their oil supplies to feed the greedy appetite of gas guzzling American Yuppies in their SUV's.

Consider an attack on the Panama Canal at this point, by an "Unknown" group of terrorists. Blame it on Al Qaeda, everyone else does.

China may like this point in history to claim back Taiwan, and demand what is left of the US Fleet removes itself from the South China Sea within hours, or else.

North Korea with nothing to lose may decide to feed it's starving millions, and send it's huge army into South Korea, now almost empty of American defenders.

The problem is that the world really does hate America and Israel and may "Cut off it's nose to spite it's face" as the old saying goes. It would be in many countries interests to see a spreading conflict that embroils the United States, and causes it to vacate the 700 odd bases built up around the world to project military power. Even usually friendly Diplomats privately indicate they wish the US, in particular George Bush and Dick "Torture 'Em" Cheney would get a Bloody Nose. The problem is that once started the results of a nuclear confrontation are unknown. Consider the massive underestimation of the after effects of invading Iraq. Imagine Iraq and Iran, with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan thrown in for good measure.

What we do know is the effects on the Global Supply Chain for Energy and in the weeks ahead we will be focusing on Energy Geopolitics again. The global problems haven't gone away. The United States received a temporary pardon as the tankers lined up after Hurricane Katrina gave the price of Gasoline a short lived downward spiral.

A Reminder:

National Energy Center, Washington D.C. Plans for the Looming Energy Crisis

The National Energy Center, Washington D.C. develops planning advice for energy investment, and sustainable practices to conserve energy and extend our domestic energy reserves.

(PRWEB) September 19, 2005 -- The National Energy Center, Washington D.C. brings together industry leaders, intelligence analysts, financial managers, policy and media experts to develop planning advice for energy investment, and sustainable practices to conserve energy and extend our domestic energy reserves.

The Center is being developed by Communication Links, Inc. the geopolitical intelligence company which monitors global developments, technologies, exploration and energy utilization, to create scenarios, solutions and recommendations for the energy needs of towns, countries, companies and individuals, as well as investment profiles for Hedge Funds, and investment managers.

"The vulnerability and lack of investment in energy infrastructure over the past 30 years is clearly highlighted with Hurricane Katrina," explains Alan Simpson, President of Communication Links, Inc. "This had ramifications around the world, and is just the beginning of increasing hardship and economic turmoil during this the Century of Energy Conflict. We can look forward to increasing conflicts between economic giants with nuclear weapons, as traditional supplies of cheap oil become exhausted."

"The predicted effects to the Global Food Chain are slowly unfolding against this backdrop of dwindling resources, increased demand and population growth. New discoveries have not kept pace with our insatiable demand for Oil and natural gas. We now need to bring together all the knowledge and possible scenarios to develop a sustainable plan for the future."

"There are simple modifications in the neglected refining capacity of the US which will significantly increase the supply of domestic oil to the consumer. Waste organic oils can be recycled, and with waste crops converted into diesel fuel for transportation and agriculture. With the advances in broadband telecommunications millions of workers could be off the roads within a short period of time, if corporations understood the positive effects of Telecommuting on the nations energy bill."

Other concerns are the development of Methane Hydrate and the risks in tapping these huge, but unstable reserves of natural gas. Nuclear energy and nuclear recycling become even more important as the US will have to turn to nuclear in the mid term to sustain their electrical energy needs as supplies of natural gas decline. Other alternatives being profiled are wind, solar and geothermal energy, especially for farmers and remote communities.

The National Energy Center can be found at http://www.NationalEnergyCenter.com

Biographies | Contact Us | ©2005 Alan Simpson