by Alan Simpson
Iraq - Democracy or Puppet?
One of the worst miscalculation on the part of the Bush Advisors was that a new Iraq would be a shining example of western democracy, forever grateful to the glorious liberators from the United States. George has been watching too many WWII movies of the liberation of France and Europe!
If you were to mandate one person, one vote today, the result would be a Islamic Theocracy, on the same model as Iran. The Ayatollahs would rule and the "Agents of Satan" would be thrown out.
Those who want a simple lesson on the potential future of Iraq should study Yugoslavia after Tito.
Saddam was a bastard of the first order, but was the man to bind together the three sections of an unstable nation. Now, thanks to the amateur politicians from Texas we have created three regions timing down to a civil war.
The lofty ideal of a western style democracy with one person per vote for the leader will favor the Shiites, and their fundamental view of Islam.
|That would be a serious upset for
the US, and a very dangerous scenario for a civil war.
This brings into the equation Turkey, and Iran. Turkey because a fundamental Shiite Theocracy would be very hard on the Kurds, now enjoying a degree of freedom they could only have dreamed of under Saddam.
Iran because now like minds span the Oilfields and all the power that comes with that.
The tribe of Saddam will not sit quietly by and watch their world disintegrate. It hardly needs a PhD to make a case that vast quantities of missing arms and explosives were diverted for future use of Saddams Sunni supporters.
So we are seeing a logical scenario unfold, the majority (60%) of the population, suppressed by the minority (20%) under a brutal regime, now finding their dream of an Islamic State in their grasp. They can meet that goal either through the ballot box, provided by the US, or by driving out the same with a long drawn out war against the Infidel army of occupation. Sadly the teaching of their religion means this message is already built into their thought process.
|The problem is not gong to go
away, and every day more and more young fighters will join the extremists seeking a seat
of glory in the promised land.
It appeals to the young to have fought for their country, and to have sacrificed to drive out the occupying armies who invaded their land. Look early at Israel for case studies. It is ironic that in the minds of the youths firing RPG's at US troops that they see themselves the same as Jewish terrorists firing at British troops occupying their land prior to the creation of the State of Israel.
The resistance to US rule in Iraq will continue to grow, and the outcome is far from certain. Despite what the politically motivated experts may believe the possibility of a civil war is very real.
The war was brilliantly executed by the US and British military. The peace was lost by amateur politicians, bad advisors and arrogant plain stupid decisions by the staff of Paul Bremmer.
If only the politicians could be as well trained in their craft as the troops the deployed. That still leaves the question of Iraq - Democracy or Puppet?