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June 22nd, 1998 Communications & Year 2000 Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Subcommittee.The ability to communicate is the essential cement that holds together the building blocks of our modern society. Over the past century we have crafted a complex global electronic communication network, which seamlessly allows us to send our messages to anywhere on the surface of the Earth, and even to the depths of the oceans, and out into deep space. Today I need to address both the technology, consequences of failure, and the need for a global media message explaining Year 2000. This message needs to reassure the public, explain the impact of the "Millennium Bug", and action that needs to be taken, to minimize it’s effects. Part 1 - The Technology The Problem Every day trillions of dollars of global wealth are transmitted electronically around the world, from that spot on the Earth’s surface known as New York. This wealth is retransmitted again, and again, in the course of a normal business day. This is done electronically by computers, using date-dependent software, over date-dependent networks.On initial examination, telecommunications networks seem not to be affected by dates. They appear to consist of copper wire, fiber cable and satellite links, connected by switches. Few realize the massive computerized infrastructure that supports this circuitry.This support infrastructure is often ignored. It is of little consequence if the computer that connects the call is compliant, if the billing computer has automatically disconnected the callers line, through non-payment of their account for the past one hundred years.But this complex network carries much more than financial transactions. It carries the control signals for power stations, switching commands for electricity grids, gas and oil pipelines, and the information to manage critical infrastructure services such as water, sewerage and environmental systems. "Catch 22" Here is the first problem. This highly sophisticated command and control network depends on the telecommunications network. The telecommunications network depends on clean electric power. The electric power generation and distribution system depends on telecommunications.Both the telecommunications network, and the power generation and distribution grid, can operate at less than 100%, without damage to the critical infrastructure. There exists a point where the losses in the generation capability, and distribution capability, multiplied by gaps in the telecommunications network can create a dangerous critical mass. Under normal circumstances this condition can be rapidly corrected, using alternative circuits, and signal paths. All indications point to starting 2000 with a reduced level of options. "Three Strikes and You’re Out" For the telecommunications network the Year 2000 problem will be the third strike, between now and 2000. First there will be the peak of the micro-meteorite shower, as predicted by NASA. This event could seriously effect space assets, such as telecommunications satellites. There is the possibility that there could be no effect. Every piece of dust, or debris could miss the hundreds of orbiting satellites, or impact with little effect.The worst case scenario is that a number of satellites, with their data and voice circuits, could be destroyed, or crippled. We need to ensure the vulnerability lessons, learned from Galaxy IV, which took out most of the pagers, across the United States, have not been forgotten. The next NASA predicted event is "Solar Max 23", where the Sun reminds us that it controls our life on Earth. This burst of energy could have tragic, or little effect on the satellites, spared by the micro-meteorite onslaught. This event could, like earlier Solar Max’s cause disruption in power grids. Again, we must wait and see, but in the meantime create a number of "what if" scenarios.These "What if" scenarios must be included in any contingency planning for Year 2000. It is essential that a level of safety be maintained in number of available circuits, and space assets, and we do not blindly assume 100% of all satellite circuits will be at our disposal on 1/1/2000. The Global Perspective We are not an island, insulated from the telecommunication problems of the rest of the world. We trade, communicate and point nuclear missiles at each other.The potential for catastrophic mis-communication is immense. The concerns of New York banks, and their credit transactions, pale in comparison with the scenario of global thermo-nuclear holocaust caused by a computer malfunction.One prudent "safety valve" would be to have a global nuclear shutdown for a mutually agreed period over midnight, and into 2000. The question, "How will a launch system react, if it believes it lost communication with it’s command and control masters, for 100 years," should be asked of the world leaders.These world leaders should be also be asking if the web of diplomatic outposts, Embassies, and Consulates, will be able to keep them informed, as well as effectively deliver their cables, and communications, to their hosts.In the case of the United States of America, I am concerned that The Department of State has such a pathetic rating on the scorecard, prepared by this committee. It is essential that they have comprehensive plans, to maintain secure communications, especially from the "Hot Spots" of the world, taking into account that the local telecommunications infrastructure may be fragmented, that space assets may not be available, and that the old standby of HF may be seriously impacted by solar activity.The last thing the President needs to find out from CNN, is that one of his Embassies has been occupied.But it is not only the United States that needs to ensure unambiguous and clear communication channels are available. In this age of nationalistic, and local tensions, we must all ensure the regional trigger-fingers are kept away from weapons, especially nuclear weapons. In areas of high tension the last thing we need is no communications between diplomats.There needs to be a telecommunications plan, to prioritize use of scarce circuits, in the event of failure. Little Freddie calling his aunt to chat, needs to be given less priority than a major bank transferring funds, or an essential business transaction. Until this problem is resolved, which it will be, there may have to be rationing of circuits.In the case of the worst case scenario being realized, which we hope will never happen, then we need to find alternative transmission paths for critical communications. This could be achieved, in major urban and business centers, by utilizing wireless technologies, and even running cables around Manhattan streets. The potential of using Cable TV lines for interconnecting businesses needs to be addressed by all Communications, or IT Managers.Above all, Corporate Officers need to be aware that the Year 2000 problem is one of business survival, and it’s consequences have been known for the past 30 years. Not being prepared to maintain essential services is not an option. Careful planning, and alternative communication strategies, can neutralize many of the effects of Y2K. Ownership of this responsibility lies with the officers of each individual company. Critical Supplies In the 1980’s we were sold on the idea of "Just in Time", as the answer to maximize profits. This concept will be put to the test, especially with critical materials, and sub-assemblies from overseas.Major corporations should examine their communication links with their overseas offices, and as a worst case scenario, ensure there are buffer stocks of critical materials, supplies and sub-assemblies. The UPS strike, and the current GM strike should show the consequences of a break in the supply chain. Additional stocks need to be planned in consultation with the banks, for an increase in stock levels will trigger a credit warning in the lending department of the bank. Let them know this is prudent contingency planning, not a downturn in business. Every company trading on a global scale, should be undertaking contingency planning, especially for transmission of critical data. The old concept of messengers, or couriers, needs to be in place as a last resort. If data lines are not available, or unreliable, then make provisions to carry removable magnetic, or optical media, by courier. The focus at this late stage is to keep the business alive, and running over the millennium changeover. Instead of a runner with an Olympic Torch, have a runner with a floppy disk.Effective communication means getting the message through, regardless of transmission medium! There are alternative means of maintaining business communications, these must be explored. Sitting pretty, hoping the Telcos will get their acts together in time, is not prudent business management. It is becoming obvious that many Telcos, especially in third world countries, have only just become aware of the issues, and the problems. Suing the carriers after the event, is not a practical recipe for business survival.If there is no dial tone….Think "Plan B" Trains & Boats & Planes There is no more dangerous an area for mis-communication than in the area of transportation, especially in aviation. The demands of the travelling public have been met by cramming an extraordinary number of planes into a small congested area.This global air traffic control network is a masterpiece of technology, sophisticated, yet aging, electronics, and dedicated well-trained personnel. Unfortunately it has to deal with irate, economy-minded, and impatient passengers, who demand convenient flights in all weathers.The airlines own the planes. The airports control them on the ground, and the air traffic organizations of governments, control them in the air. They are supplied with fuel by third parties, and are serviced by a whole army of computer managed entities, from fire crews to maintenance personnel.Behind this complex operational network is another one for administration, encompassing travel agencies, reservation systems, scheduling, personnel, finance, and finally the insurers. If these insurers do not feel confident then the planes are grounded! Any aspect of this complex puzzle can bring the world’s aviation industry to a crawl, even a halt.The FAA responses to this committee has raised doubts about the ability of the Air Traffic Control Network, to manage the current level of traffic, during and immediately after the millennium changeover. The safety of the travelling public needs to be honestly reported, free of speculation, yet subject to massive penalties for hiding the truth.Fortunately the aviation industry has awoken to the problems, and is taking steps to ensure it will have all the facts available, to make safe decisions for this busy travel period. Nevertheless the aviation industry will be under the microscope. The railroads on the other hand have somewhat missed the public scrutiny. Few realize how dependent modern railroad systems are, on computer networks. Over the past few months we have seen confusion in communications, especially in scheduling rolling stock. The scheduling of rolling stock, and the control of points and switches, must be addressed by the oversight committees. The scenario of the Soviet Union, in earlier decades, with crops rotting in the fields, and famine in the major cities, must not be allowed to become the United States in 2000, with crops rotting in California and Florida, with no rolling stock, or rail lines available to bring the produce to New York, Chicago, or the other major centers of population. There is no excuse, given the time scale, for breakdown of critical lines on communication, and supply. The shipping industry poses a different problem. Supertankers are computer controlled, their operation too complex for humans. Fortunately their numbers are small, and they do act somewhat in isolation. The shipping companies are aware of the dangers of valves malfunctioning, or worse still, a massive tanker failing to slow down, and ploughing into some port facility, at full speed. The danger of valve malfunction whilst connected to a refinery is another matter. The enormity of the embedded system problem is just being realized. Embedded systems, like Year 2000, pose a threat beyond comprehension, which leads to the second communication issue, the message. Few can comprehend Y2K. Part 2 - The Message There are those who compare the disruption from the Year 2000 "Millennium Bug" to be akin to World War II, especially the denial, lack of preparation, and global consequences. Winston Churchill is often quoted, and many see parallels in many of his speeches. Many forget that President Roosevelt skillfully prepared the US for war, helped by Hollywood and those in the media with foresight. Industry was prepared, and the White House showed positive leadership, preparing for the crisis. Today, eighteen months away from potentially the worst global crisis since World War II, leadership is totally lacking. This is surprising considering this administration will have to face the electorate in 2000, months after the crisis has struck. "The Sky is Falling" No, the sky is not falling, it’s just that the computers won’t work! That is the crux of the awareness problem. If the sky was falling, the river flooding, or the blizzard blowing, then we could relate to the events, and using historical precedents, realize we were facing imminent danger, and act accordingly. Telling the public that the computers can’t do arithmetic, and they face imminent danger, is such an abstract concept that most do not take it seriously. This generation have never known shortages. They have never known a crashing economy. They can not perceive that the United States can possibly allow such a situation to occur. They are currently in complete denial, that their technology, nor their elected leaders, can allow such a scenario to occur. A large segment of the population is waiting for Bill Gates and Microsoft to release MS 2000, the "Millennium Virus Fixer", at $49.95, from your local computer store. There is no "Millennium Virus Fixer". "Don’t Spook the Herd!" The predominant group affected by Year 2000 are the "Baby Boomers". They are the ones who will see their investments, real estate, retirement and way of life decimated if the worst case scenario occurs. The "Baby Boomers" are well known to react like a "shoal", or "herd". One turns, they all turn, one panics, they all panic, one buys yuppie four-wheel drive, off road vehicles, Manhattan is full of off-road vehicles. The task for the media managers, and PR practitioners, is to prepare the "herd" for a rough patch, without them stampeding and crushing the drovers underfoot. A stampeding herd crashes through , and destroys everything in its path, including many of its own. Major Banks are especially at risk from this "herd" mentality of the "Baby Boomers". With only around 1.5% cash reserves in US banks, any panic withdrawals could crash the system, and create a self-fulfilling prophesy. There are those on the fringe of Y2K, who would welcome such a crash. This could statistically occur from one pessimistic feature on the evening TV news. If ratings were seen to soar, the ratings-led, entertainment-biased news executives would run this story to it’s bitter end. It is essential that major banks, and corporations, inform and prepare, their customers, investors, and suppliers for the possible impact of Y2K, and their progress towards a safe, and comfortable transition. Currently the lawyers are blocking most sources of information, demanding silence at all costs! But like an earthquake fault, the longer it waits, the more energy it builds up, and the greater the destructive power, when it finally breaks and moves. It is the duty, and responsibility of a government, any government, to prepare the population for a time of crisis. In the new global information age, we would have assumed that the leader of the United States, would have led the global awareness, and rectification campaign. We assumed wrong. We need a world-class leader to emerge, and give the people of the global information society, true and positive leadership. "It’s Too Late!" The doomsayers preach that it is too late, that all is already lost. No it is not too late! "Get on with the job, and fix what you can" should be the message. Start with the mission-critical, or core-business systems, and work outwards. The non-essential systems can be fixed later.We must not create a general environment of pessimism. We must create, from strong leadership, an environment that the problems can, and will be fixed. In this type of environment this country was able to mobilize it’s enormous resources and prepare for World War II. The key of course is strong, positive, and believable leadership. Media Plan Many reading this testimony may take offense at referring to the public in behavioral terms as a "shoal" or "herd". That’s exactly how "Baby Boomers" react. The "herd" is more accurate for Y2K, because when the true picture is known, the public will get very angry.We are accused of only giving the public bad news, doomsday scenarios, and unsubstantiated figures. Unfortunately those are the only figures the corporate lawyers will release.Every company, government department, state entity, county, or city, should be initiating a media plan to inform, and reassure the public. The President should already be taking the initiative in this, and using the extensive media apparatus available to the White House, to address the nation, and the world. Silence is counter-productive, and dangerous.
In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, we have a serious communications problem, both with the technology, and the message. The good news is that both the technology, and the message, can be prepared to serve the nation, and the world during the Year 2000 transition. We can find alternative routings for data. We can, if needed "jerry-rig" circuits to continue operations, and we certainly can craft an effective media campaign to prepare, educate and inform both the American Public, and the people of the world. Keep in mind, if the worst case scenario occurs, on a global scale, the United States will be blamed for this catastrophe. The world will point to the computers, software and technology, developed and supplied by the United States, for everything that goes wrong with their economies, and infrastructure in 2000. We need communication planning now. Failure is not an option!
Biography Alan Simpson is a leading SME on communication networks and IT management. He has conducted briefings and presentations on global communications in 65 countries, and since 1995 the English-born "Global Communicator" has been a leading spokesman on international Year 2000 issues. After ten years service with the Royal Air Force, where he specialized in electronic warfare, and intelligence gathering, he formed Proloc Computers, and Cambridge Advanced Technology. He was a pioneer in global satellite television networks. As President of Satellite Communications he was awarded nine US Government contracts to survey, and install satellite links to US Embassies, and Consulates in 125 major cities, developing the much acclaimed WORLDNET television network, for the Reagan Administration. He has been a consultant to BBC, Visnews, CNN, VOA and 13 start-up networks, as well as to governments and major corporations. |
