Y2K - 1999 The Year of the Informed Citizen

Alan Simpson

One of the positive by-products of the Year 2000 crisis is the evolution of community awareness groups, and a stirring of civic preparedness for a possible shortage of resources and services.

Since the Second World War the public has been lulled into a false sense of security, with the belief that big government was the answer to all problems. Faced with such issues as thermo-nuclear war, the communist menace and even the race to the Moon, Mr. And Mrs. Joe Public were overwhelmed with the enormity of the task, and decided it was better left to government. Left to the omnipotent "Wizard of Oz."

Then came Y2K.

Like Dorothy in the movie, Joe Public realized in the 1990's that governments have serious limitations, and that they are ordinary people, with ordinary distractions and capabilities. Especially when they are faced with widespread problems, with no precedent, and no clearly defined organization to attack.

Y2K is the first time in the history of society, when a potential catastrophe will occur as an area failure, as opposed to a point failure. An earthquake occurs at a point, a fire at a point, even a battle occurs at a point. The point may be many miles wide, but diverting resources from another point, or points, can contain it.

Y2K on the other hand will roll across the globe as the Earth turns, and as the sun shines. Regardless of wealth, technology, Superpower status, or government decree, the path of Year 2000 cannot be changed, varied nor delayed. At best we can fool some dumb computers by feeding them the wrong date, and putting off the obvious for a few years.

In real time we can't do anything, but prepare for the worst.

In the 1990's the fallibility of international, and national leaders was destroyed forever. It was at best an illusion anyway; for as the truth about the great leaders begins to come out, we learn that "He who makes the least mistakes Wins." It is dawning on communities that they must turn to themselves in time of crisis.

This is not new. In the bombing blitz of London during 1940, it was communities who saved the day, not government. The British government grossly miscalculated the effects of bombing the centers of civilian population. They had made massive provisions for dead bodies, but never considered homeless living people. They decreed the London Underground was not to be used as an air aid shelter, and finally reversed that decision when they realized that the packed stations were the best shelters around. The public totally ignored the bureaucrats and saved tens of thousands of lives. The feeding, housing and survival of the public were achieved by "People Power" and not by an inept government.

Today we see the looming crisis of Y2K. Enough will probably be fixed in time to give us just a short-term hangover over the New Year. If enough problems remain unfixed, especially in the supply chain, then we could see cascading failures, and the potential of eventual paralysis.

If this scenario develops then no government can, or will, be able to help until well after the event. Government intervention in any crisis situation is geared for reacting to the event. All aid agencies also react to an emergency, especially on a wide scale. True if a disaster is seen to be in a particular area, such as a hurricane hitting the coast of say, Florida, then resources can be pre-positioned, for best effect. But if the answer to "where" is "everywhere" then the standard operating procedures goes out of the window.

The response to the crisis, and the involvement of government, has been disappointing in the United States. Faced with overwhelming, and unknown parameters, the Washington bureaucracy has chosen to look after itself. Take the Congressional Report Card, which focuses on the government systems, the only terms of reference of the oversight committee. It ignores, through no information, nor resources, the critical infrastructure of the nation, and essential trading partners. Some even ask if it should also contain the state of community preparedness, the barometer of each city and state?

The responsibility for civic preparedness is not the sole responsibility of central government. It is really the responsibility of each person, street, city, county, state and administrative unit. It should not be a hierarchical structure, with an elected leader delegating duties and responsibilities.

It is an intertwined matrix of self-help groups co-operating with each other, each with its own specialized expertise, and contribution to the overall matrix. The local churches bring reassurance, and spiritual help, as well as providing a safety net of food, shelter and warmth for the needy. The local emergency services, through extended local participation, ensure all emergencies will be managed. Local law enforcement, with the help of community watch groups, will ensure law and order is maintained, in the event of problems with telecommunications, and alarm systems. Local radio amateurs, always willing and eager to assist in an emergency, provide an emergency communications network, often available on battery power.

There needs to be a voice leading this nationwide network. Sadly this is lacking, and someone needs to fill this void, before the end of 1999. Be warned, if Mr. And Mrs. Joe Public feels there is no earthly use for the expensive political leaders, then you have the beginnings of Anarchy. Why pay Federal taxes, if the Feds are not there when you need them.

The world is fragmenting, and becoming more dangerous. The intelligence machine is geared to watching a defined, well-known military adversary. It is not geared, nor ever will be, to watch divergent, unknown groups of dangerous terrorists, hell-bent on destroying society, as we know it. The weapons of creating widespread havoc are becoming accessible to any determined person. It is not "if", but "when" before we have a disaster.

My point? A well organized community, with the facilities for bringing together, and informing the citizens in times of crisis, as well as creating a level of civic preparedness for natural, or man-made disasters, is the best insurance for the maintaining the safety and security of society.

Y2K is a "Wake Up Call" to us all. In a few months it will be a crisis about computer dates. What will the next global crisis be about, and will we have the 30-year lead-time we had with Y2K? I doubt it.

The most disgusting aspect of Y2K has been the pronouncements of the Rabid Religious Right that there should be hoarding of food, water and resources, and that neighbors should be kept away, with loaded AK 47's. Gunning down your neighbor in times of crisis is not what the Bible, nor Koran, nor any other religious teaching recommends. Community spirit is not booby traps around the perimeter, or automatic fire to greet visitors. Stop the rot now!

Let 1999 be the "Year of the Informed Citizen", with communities coming together to create civic preparedness, community contingency plans, and connecting with each other. Y2K looks like being just an irritating, bumpy ride, with no major catastrophes. But in all honesty, we can just create scenarios, and pick the most likely. There is still a possibility that the entire Y2K situation can spin out of control, and result in serious failures, especially if we do not take control of communicating the accurate message to the public, and we allow Y2K disaster to become a self-fulfilling prophesy. Disaster is becoming less of a probable scenario, but January 2^nd, 2000 is too late to start planning if the worst occurs.

If you can't find a local community group, form one, even if it is just the "Main Street Y2K Civic Preparedness and Super Bowl 2000 Party Group". Each small piece in the matrix builds to become a citywide, then countywide, then statewide, national, and eventually international force. It is the true expression of People-Power!

 

Alan Simpson
Broadcaster & Speaker

(This paper was chosen by the US Government and featured on their ITPolicy site on GSA.gov.)